Holdout Testing Cadence and Cannibalization Risk
Frequent testing contaminates control groups and masks true channel performance.
Marco Quintero-Vidal
Section
8 stories in Incrementality Testing.
Frequent testing contaminates control groups and masks true channel performance.
How to fix noisy baselines before incrementality tests fall apart.
Ghost ads measure true ad impact by withholding exposure while preserving auction conditions.
Incrementality testing isolates causation; conversion lift only measures correlation.
Comparing engaged shoppers to non-engaged shoppers measures intent, not the AI tool's actual value.
Platform dashboards inflate ad performance; geo-holdout tests reveal what actually drove sales.
Most teams skip the math and end up chasing sensitivity they can't actually afford.
Holdout tests reveal whether on-site tools truly drive sales or just attract ready-to-buy visitors.